Thursday, June 01, 2006

60 percent

On May 9, in a surprising turn of event, the sole suspect in Cecilia Zhang abduction and murder, Min Chen, pleaded guilty to second-degree murder in the death of the nine-year-old girl. A much-anticipated trial was over before it started. As a result, the only information coming out of the final trial was a 19-page AGREED STATEMENT OF FACTS, jointly produced by the prosecution and Chen's legal team, with the desperate endorsement of Cecilia Zhang's parents.

Because of the information contained in the ASOF and available media reports, I became even more convinced of my earlier claim that Canadian government "had prior knowledge of and very likely was involved in the crime." Consequently, I now raise that probability from 40% to 60%.

Specifically, I believe that Min Chen's real motive in committing the crime was not to obtain a $25,000 ransom to pay for his sham marriage, as virtually all reporters (and thus the public) were led to believe by this carefully written ASOF. Yes, Chen wanted very much to stay in Canada. But I believe that Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) took advantage of his strong desire and instructed him, directly or indirectly, to abduct Cecilia Zhang on that particular day in return for a promise of approving his immigrant application through a sham marriage.

Before I present the facts and analysis of Chen's real motive, a personal disclosure first. I wrote to both Chen's lawyers and Cecilia Zhang's parents in August 2005 (when my confidence level was at 40%). Although I did not hear back from either party, it's reasonable to assume that both parties have been aware of my allegation since last summer.

I will focus on the two biggest puzzles of the case later:

  1. Was it plausible for Min Chen to kidnap an innocent child for the purpose of obtaining a ransom of mere $25,000?
  2. Why didn't Chen flee after the abduction and alleged murder? Moreover, why did he continue to pursue the sham marriage and immigration application afterwards?

Update: