Wednesday, April 08, 2009

China’s democratization and its impact on the world (4)

When I first realized that the Chinese government was very likely considering me for a leadership position back in the summer of 2005, the first impression of the Chinese government that came to my mind was the rampant corruption, as reflected in my blogs. Indeed, to eradicate corruption has been my primary consideration to advocate political reform in China.

When President Barack Obama decided to confront China on his first day in office, he also implied - in his inauguration speech - that corruption in Chinese government was one of his justifications. Mr. Obama must have known that "power tends to corrupt, absolute power corrupts absolutely" and that the surest way to tackle corruption in a government like China's is to change its current authoritarian regime and build a democratic system.

So why does Mr. Obama favor Hu Jintao instead of me for leadership in China, as can be seen as lately as in the G20 Summit in London? Alas, Mr. Obama's real intent is not at all China's democratization, or even its improved governance. What Mr. Obama, just like his predecessor George W. Bush, really wants is a poodle in Mr. Hu to serve his political interest. By mentioning corruption in his inauguration speech, Mr. Obama dived into Chinese politics and signaled his support for Mr. Hu.

(As I revealed in my previous blogs, one way Mr. Hu has been able to wrestle political power away from his predecessor was to wage anti-corruption campaigns as many people in the previous administration were more or less corrupt in a political system without effective check-and-balance. -- Another way for Mr. Hu to grow his political power was to gradually gain control over the military. One military exercise in early fall of 2006 was conducted for this purpose, I believe.)

And here comes a counter-intuitive point about China's democratization: The country that will be most impacted from China's democratization is not going to be one of its neighbors in East Asia. It's going to be United States of America. A democratic government in Beijing will necessarily reflect the central-left character of the whole population. The chances are that such a government will not blindly follow Washington's marching orders.

Of course, implicit in this point is the recognition that U.S. and China are the two most important countries in this century. Already, there have been talks of a G2 in the media. So, how will a G2 work in the context of a democratizing China?